KE VS UG: THE BATTLE FOR FIRST OIL

ON YOUR MARKS:

Kenya has a 2022 target for “first oil” exports from Turkana through a pipeline via the new Port of Lamu. And here I am not talking about the “early oil” that Kenya is trucking to Mombasa from Turkana, which in reality is an operational activity to remove oil accumulations from past drillings of exploration and appraisal wells. I am correctly referring to commercial-scale exports through the Turkana-Lamu pipeline.

Across the border, the Ugandans are also planning to export their first commercial oil from Lake Albert oil basins through a pipeline via the Port of Tanga in Tanzania. Their target first oil export date appears to be slipping from 2021 to 2022.

GET SET … AND GO!!

Yes, it will be interesting and indeed healthy competition to watch who between the two countries and the two ports of Lamu and Tanga will be ahead in flagging off the first oil export ship.

It gets juicier with both presidents wanting to lay their legacy on these projects!

DISTANCE TRAVELLED:

Uganda discovered commercial oil in 2006 while Kenya found theirs in 2012. At one point the two countries had agreed to export their oil through one joint-venture pipeline passing from Western Uganda via Turkana to Lamu. However, this plan was dropped in 2015 when Uganda, for whatever reasons, decided to build their pipeline, through BongoLand, to Tanga jointly with the Government of Tanzania.

The 821 km Turkana-Lamu pipeline is planned to pump up to 120,000 barrels per day, while the 1445 km Uganda/Tanzania pipeline is planned to through-put 216,000 barrels per day.

Uganda is also simultaneously planning to construct a new 60,000 barrels per day refinery near the oilfields for completion about 2022.

My assessment is that in terms of alignment of various participating parties; legal/institutional capacity development; and status of project design studies, Uganda is definitely way ahead of Kenya. The only hitch, which was encountered recently, is serious disagreement on commercial terms (tariffs) in respect of the Uganda/Tanzania pipeline between the investors and the two governments.

BET ON UGANDA TO WIN;

If pipeline commercial terms are thrashed out in good time, it is possible for Uganda investors (Total, CNOOC, and Tullow) to commit investments and realize their production and pipeline projects for fist oil exports by 2022. Construction lead times are usually three years.

THE ODDS AGAINST KENYA WIN:

On the Kenyan side, the investors (Tullow, Total, and Africa Oil) are working at full speed to conclude their design studies in good time to permit final investment decisions by the end of 2019.

This would mean production and pipeline projects construction commencing in early 2020 for first oil export by 2022.

However, Kenya is not as ready as Uganda is. The facilitative legal and institutional capacity development is certainly miles behind Uganda. Commercial and fiscal terms are understood to be far from being agreed between the Kenya government and the investors, with no visible indication when this will be concluded.

While the land issues are mostly sorted out in Uganda, in Kenya we are just beginning the land acquisition process with evidence of weak alignment between national and county governments. Pushing oil from the wells will require large amounts of water that will need to be pumped from Turkwel dam in the neighbouring West Pokot County to the Turkana oilfields. For this to be realized, necessary protocols will need to be agreed and finalized early enough.

The above issues are likely to delay investment commitments by Kenyan oil investors. It is my opinion that unless the Kenya government prioritizes attention on the Turkana oil, Kenya may needlessly miss the 2022 date which would be very unfortunate.

In Uganda, oil has always received the highest possible level of official attention and facilitation.

With the latest near-total focus on THE BIG FOUR AGENDA in Kenya, there is a danger of oil development falling outside the cabinet priority radar.

Outstanding agreements need to be polished and signed. Legal, Institutional and technical capacity development needs to be fast-tracked. Well-oiled relationships between national and county governments will also need to be created and nurtured.

This way Kenya can be a serious contender for the “2022 first oil export prize” within the friendly contest with Uganda.

There is no compelling reason why Kenya should not make the 2022 target.

Dead weight employees!

You do not particularly like it but you're hanging in there. The bills have got to be paid, somehow. You hope it doesn’t but it is reflected in your every move. You only work as much as they’re paying you and fold up by 5:00pm day in, day out and wait to dishonestly take home a salary you haven’t earned come end-month. You've grown beyond the job or the job has grown beyond your capabilities. Either way, you're stuck, stagnant and miserable.

Stagnation is frustrating because we are built for continued progress. By sitting around sulkily doing your bare minimum, you're effectively firing yourself and creating a vacuum in your position for a more energetic and engaged professional.

There's probably nothing wrong with your job but you're definitely the wrong person for it at this time. No one will have any qualms letting you go. If that’s not the outcome you’re hoping for, there are three ways in which you assure yourself continued growth in any position that you hold.

BE RELEVANT:
First, establish that there is a need for what you do — a vacuum that your skill-set and professional drive fill.
Secondly, ensure that you are willing, ready and able to consistently provide the service. Lastly, no one ever really is but get as close as possible to being irreplaceable. You want to work in such a way that your excellence is unrivalled. There must be great difficulty in replacing you because your standards are very high.

It is not easy or fun but intelligent leaders have an inner knowing of exactly how to lead effectively. Authentic leaders know that there are those that are unwilling to do more than what is expected. This lot will rarely be challenged enough to remain engaged. If we are not for whatever reason willing to do more than we are paid for, we will never be paid for more than we are doing. We all want to be paid more.
The question is; do we actually do more or do we only do more when the appraisal period is around the corner?

KNOW WHEN TO LET GO!
Firing people is as important as hiring them. This is true both for the organisation and the employees. Intelligent leaders will simply not keep deadweight. Not for long, anyway because it is tantamount to defrauding their organisation by paying people for poor delivery. Not decisively dealing with weak links in the team sets a precedent for poor performance.

Popularity is rarely a true leader’s priority. A leader is a person with thick enough skin to make difficult decisions.
You see; a true leader is very clear about what may not be obvious to others. If the end result of an action or inaction will not positively contribute to the organization's objectives, his/her vision and legacy, it has got to be changed for the better. That's all there is to it.

If you’re bored to the point of non-delivery of the service you promised to give, do the right thing. If you’re unwilling to do more than you’re being paid to do, do the right thing. The right thing is to either change your attitude and meaningfully contribute or honourably resign and create the space in your life for what you’re willing to commit more of yourself.

If you’re keeping deadweight in your team, do the right thing — develop them or let them go thereby creating space in your organisation for better talent to come in.

Masaa ya Mututho no more!!

During the week when schools were just opening and children going back to school, Kenyans were treated to a sad episode on social media where a schoolgirl in full uniform was captured drunk and helpless. She was struggling in the hands of a stranger and nobody was able to tell where her parents were. The girl confessed that her mother takes alcohol and was her role model and mentor.

The following day Kenyans were treated to another incident in the same home after officials from the NACADA visited to offer assistance to the family.

The officials happily talked to the press and did not show any remorse or provide Kenyans with the road map that the organisation is taking to ensure that such cases are minimised.

Kenyans should remember that during the tenure of John Mututho as chairman of NACADA, incidences of alcohol abuse went down drastically and the organisation’s presence was being felt in every corner of the country. In fact, Kenyans came up with the term ‘‘masaa ya Mututho’’ to warn their friends to take alcohol within the stipulated time.

Many residential estates were calm after 11 P.M. as police patrols were common. Police officers would arrest those who violated the drinking hours.

But since his exit, nobody hears about NACADA again. The only time the organisation is mentioned is during the state appointments. Bars, nightclubs, wines and spirit shops are on the rise in residential areas with no opening time limit. Many estates in Nairobi are now home to many nightclubs with some even operating on the ground floors of apartments and flats.

Loud music until morning has now become the norm. Police officers are usually on the patrol in these areas and some are even found around these clubs every night, maybe to collect their dues! This life!!

These apartments are full of school children who need enough sleep and many other persons involved in nation building who need enough rest which is being interrupted.

Bar and nightclub operators claim that they have been issued with a 24-hour permit to operate in the estates from the regulator.

NACADA officials should wake up and bring this chaotic situation to an end.

Kenyan taxpayers cannot continue to pay these officials while there is nothing tangible happening on the ground.

NACADA should tell Kenyans who is issuing the 24-hour permits to bars and nightclubs in the estates.

What is it that which Mututho did that the current NACADA officials are not able to do?

School children are being exposed to alcohol and other immoral habits by the proliferation of these establishments in residential areas.

In many rural areas with limited resources, the chiefs and police have reduced alcohol abuse and it makes no sense that in Nairobi the administration that has resources is unable to contain such a situation. Somebody wake up!!!!

Why you should be cautious of the crypto-currency fuss!

If you’re looking to make a quick kill on the volatile and rapidly-growing cryptocurrency market, it may be wise to step back and learn a bit first.

While the market is a good place to make quick profits, the volatility of cryptocurrencies makes any investment a risky one – especially if you are investing in smaller coins. This, coupled with the complex technology behind cryptocurrencies and what makes each coin unique, means it is not a foolproof path to riches.

Volatility

While the success stories of Bitcoin and Ethereum investors continually encourage fresh investment into cryptocurrencies, the volatility of the market means you can lose a significant portion of your investment overnight.

This was demonstrated recently when the prices of almost all major cryptocurrencies dropped by around 53% in less than a week. This followed news of a cryptocurrency crackdown in China.

Blockchain expert Simon Dingle said that cryptocurrencies do carry risk and people must not invest more than they can afford to lose. If newcomers are chasing profits, then cryptocurrencies are as good a place as any to do it.

“People chasing a quick gain usually just get their faces ripped off by the market. That’s fine if they feel like doing it, but I’d prefer to spend my energy elsewhere.”

Dingle said investing in cryptocurrency purely to make quick profits is risky, and many people lose a considerable amount trying.

Security

Another issue plaguing newcomers to cryptocurrency is a lack of knowledge about how blockchain technology works.

This means new investors are often scammed, lose their private keys, or send their coins to the wrong address. Make sure you do your homework on where you are buying your cryptocurrencies from. Only use reputable exchanges like Luno in South Africa or Bitstamp in Europe.

I recommend using a hardware wallet like a Trezor or Ledger Nano S, or a secure software wallet like Bread, Blockchain, or Copay to store cryptocurrency.

Many phishing scams prey on a newcomer’s lack of knowledge, asking them to provide their wallet details to avoid a “hard fork”, or pose as third-party wallet providers.

Fakes

Scammers also leverage the unregulated nature of the environment to create their own cryptocurrencies, presenting no real product and holding ICOs aimed at inexperienced newcomers.

Potential investors must learn about how funds move around on the blockchain and how they can control their funds. Take time to learn about the difference between controlling your own keys and how to back them up, versus trusting an exchange to look after your keys for you.

Technology

Many cryptocurrency investors do not fully understand how blockchain technology works or the concepts behind the coins they have bought, but are looking to profit from the growth of those coins.

The blockchain technology underpinning cryptocurrencies has the potential to disrupt global banking, legal, and financial systems, and each cryptocurrency is usually backed by a development team which is building a specific infrastructure or application on the technology.

Most investors have limited knowledge of what they’re investing in. That isn’t just true of cryptocurrencies. People follow the crowd and very few take the time to truly understand what they’re doing and why.

Learning about the technology behind cryptocurrencies is more rewarding for newcomers, rather than just judging their potential to make money. If new investors want to learn about one of the most exciting developments in human history, then I believe learning about cryptocurrency has a lot more to offer than just the potential of profits.

THE CRYPTOCURRENCY BUBBLE!

A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security. A cryptocurrency is difficult to counterfeit because of this security feature. Many cryptocurrencies are decentralized systems based on blockchain technology, a distributed ledger enforced by a disparate network of computers. A defining feature of a cryptocurrency, and arguably its biggest allure, is its organic nature; it is not issued by any central authority, rendering it theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation.

The first blockchain-based cryptocurrency was Bitcoin, which still remains the most popular and most valuable. Today, there are thousands of alternate cryptocurrencies with various functions or specifications. Some of these are clones of Bitcoin while others are forks or new cryptocurrencies that split off from an already existing one.

BREAKING DOWN:

Cryptocurrencies are systems that allow for the secure payments of online transactions that are denominated in terms of a virtual "token," representing ledger entries internal to the system itself. 
"Crypto" refers to the fact that various encryption algorithms and cryptographic techniques, such as elliptical curve encryption, public-private key pairs, and hashing functions, are employed.

The first cryptocurrency to capture the public imagination was Bitcoin, which was launched in 2009 by an individual or group known under the pseudonym, Satoshi Nakamoto. As of October 2018, there were over 17.33 million bitcoins in circulation with a total market value of around $115 billion (although the market price of bitcoin can fluctuate quite a bit). Bitcoin's success has spawned a number of competing cryptocurrencies, known as "altcoins" such as Litecoin, Namecoin and Peercoin, as well as Ethereum, EOS, and Cardano. 
Today, there are literally thousands of cryptocurrencies in existence, with an aggregate market value of over $200 billion (Bitcoin currently represents more than 50% of the total value).

Benefits and Drawbacks:

Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of making it easier to transfer funds directly between two parties in a transaction, without the need for a trusted third party such as a bank or credit card company; these transfers are facilitated through the use of public keys and private keys for security purposes. In modern cryptocurrency systems, a user's "wallet," or account address, has a public key, and the private key is used to sign transactions. Fund transfers are done with minimal processing fees, allowing users to avoid the steep fees charged by most banks and financial institutions for wire transfers.

Central to the appeal and function of Bitcoin is the blockchain technology it uses to store an online ledger of all the transactions that have ever been conducted using bitcoins, providing a data structure for this ledger that is exposed to a limited threat from hackers and can be copied across all computers running Bitcoin software. 
Every new block generated must be verified by the ledgers of each user on the market, making it almost impossible to forge transaction histories. 
Many experts see this blockchain as having important uses in technologies such as online voting and crowdfunding, and major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase see potential in cryptocurrencies to lower transaction costs by making payment processing more efficient. 
However, because cryptocurrencies are virtual and do not have a central repository, a digital cryptocurrency balance can be wiped out by a computer crash if a backup copy of the holdings does not exist, or if somebody simply loses their private keys.

At the same time, there is no central authority, government, or corporation that has access to your funds or your personal information.

The semi-anonymous nature of cryptocurrency transactions makes them well-suited for a host of nefarious activities, such as money laundering and tax evasion. However, cryptocurrency advocates often value the anonymity highly. 
Some cryptocurrencies are more private than others. Bitcoin, for instance, is a relatively poor choice for conducting illegal business online, and forensic analysis of bitcoin transactions has led authorities to arrest and prosecute criminals. More privacy-oriented coins do exist, such as Dash, ZCash, or Monero, which are far more difficult to trace.

Since prices are based on supply and demand, the rate at which a cryptocurrency can be exchanged for another currency can fluctuate widely. However, plenty of research has been undertaken to identify the fundamental price drivers of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has indeed experienced some rapid surges and collapses in value, reaching as high as $19,000 per bitcoin in December of 2017 before returning to around $7,000 in the following months. Cryptocurrencies are thus considered by some economists to be a short-lived fad or speculative bubble. 
There is a concern especially that the currency units, such as bitcoins, are not rooted in any material goods. Some research has identified that the cost of producing a bitcoin, which takes an increasingly large amount of energy, is directly related to its market price.

Cryptocurrencies' blockchains are secure, but other aspects of a cryptocurrency ecosystem are not immune to the threat of hacking. In Bitcoin's almost 10-year history, several online exchanges have been the subject of hacking and theft, sometimes with millions of dollars’ worth of 'coins' stolen. Still, many observers look at cryptocurrencies as hope that a currency can exist that preserves value, facilitates exchange, is more transportable than hard metals, and is outside the influence of central banks and governments.

That moment when church is nuisance!

Not everyone who calls Him “Lord, Lord” will enter the kingdom of heaven, our saviour once admonished. Apparently, a few people heard this and thought: “Well, we must make sure we call loud enough, otherwise tutahata ride ya kuenda kwa sir God!!.”

The result….
Brutal noise: Noise that charges into your windows and grabs the sleep out of your head and flings it out into the darkness, noise that then proceeds to stamp on your head for all the hours until dawn.

Local pharmacies and bars register abnormal orders for Valium and Vodka every time they hear that the local church is having an “overnight prayer” aka “Kesha”, aka “Nuisance”.

Those Days: There was a time when we would hear our local churches from our homes and think: “Oh, how sweet the songs of praise I hear as the faithful offer up worship unto the Lord. I ought to go and join them, that I may meet the Lord, too.” 

But now? Now we say: “Lord, make it stop!” When people say they are mostly taking the Lord’s name in vain, but still, they genuinely wish the Lord would make those jerks actually stop praising Him, or at least stop praising Him so loudly.

Think of it: The service only needs to be loud enough for the person in the back to hear, right? Anything else is excess. Superfluous. One might even say greedy, selfish and inconsiderate.

So, what makes a person who only needs 50 metres of sound decide to instead buy, activate, fuel and power a kilometre of sound? Is it love, charity, kindness, compassion, thinking of your neighbour before yourself as the Lord prescribed?

Not at all. They have applied flagrant conceit, callous meanness, run-away vanity and have decided that their neighbour can go screw themselves because they want to have a loud party and do not care about anybody else.

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO NEMA AND THE NOISE POLLUTION LAW?

On any given night: You know that there are people in there who need to rest. People reading for exams, people who are ill... At the very least, there are babies.

If you walk into a room where a baby is asleep and shout “PRAISE GAD HALLELUJAH! CHIISAS LOVES YOU!” at the top of your voice, you will not be called pious and devout, you will be called a stupid, selfish jerk. And that is waking up one kid for a few seconds. Now, imagine waking up an entire neighbourhood of kids for a whole night? Damn! I need me a Vodka too!

So what do you suggest? I suggest we continue to suffer as victims of these Pharisees. I suggest we put up with it. Just allow. Swallow. Suffer locally. The Kenyan way. Kaa kijeshi!

Or: Or if you have the courage and are ready to be as much of an ass as they are, you could consider the exhortation from Luke 6:31: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Clearly, they want us to do unto them what they do unto us, so let us become as much of a nuisance to them as they are to us.

Perhaps begin by dumping our rubbish inside their church. That is a strategy I read about on the internet once. Worked in Nigeria. Though I would be more partial to going to the pastor’s house when he is taking his nap (to rest after his all-night service) and singing “…am dundaing” underneath his window albeit off-key… but still doing unto him as he does unto us!!

You don't have to rob a bank for Christmas!

The holiday spending frenzy is here! Pssst! Did you know that you don’t necessarily have to turn up broke in January? Here are tips on the how;

1.  Set limits for total holiday spending - be realistic about what you are willing to sacrifice by developing new-and-improved spending habits. 
2. Make your own "naughty" or "nice" lists - Santa has to buy presents for the whole world, but you don't 
3. Give your time - Mom and dad (or other far-away family and friends) might love nothing more than a visit from you. Give small gifts and large hugs. 
4. Give personalized gifts instead of expensive gifts 
5. Organize group volunteering instead of holiday parties - You'll get to spend quality time together – plus, you'll come out of the day feeling proud of your efforts rather than suffering from buyer's remorse, and anyone can benefit from volunteering

The Bottom Line

Don't let your debt become the Scrooge that robs the fun from your holiday season. Spend time with your friends and family, base your gift buying on sentiment rather than currency value, and avoid giving yourself a year-round debt headache. If you can follow these tips, when your holiday bank statements arrive in the New Year, you'll find yourself singing "Joy to the World" all over again.